The end of the world as we know it?

A couple years ago, around the height of the financial crisis, I had an interesting conversation with some friends at a pub.

At that time it did truly seem that the world as we understood it was crashing down while all kinds of too-big-to-fail institutions looked as if they were in the process of failing. I remember a heated debate as to whether the financial system as we knew it could survive this turmoil or if we were truly witnessing the end of an era, entering into some brave new world. At the time I fell strongly on the resiliency side of the debate, arguing that despite the real perils around us, the system would bounce back. It always had.

Looking back at that conversation now, I ask myself the same question again and find myself, more or less, with the same answer. Technically speaking, the recession in the U.S. has been over for a long while, even if unemployment numbers don't seem to back up that claim. Canada has remained somewhat insulated from the full force of the housing market and economic collapse, sheltered largely by our abundant natural resources and to a lesser extent, prudent regulation.

However, as the recent debt ceiling scare and more recent still stock market volatility has filled front pages of newspapers the world over, it does seem prudent to ask what the future holds. The first answer, of course, is that we cannot know and that for every glass-half-full type who speaks of recovery just around the corner you will find a doom-and-gloomer ready to explain how we are going to hell and the hand basket is quickly unraveling.

What tools do we have to assess who is right and who is wrong? To what extent is it reasonable to defer to experts in decision making today that will in part dictate our future prosperity? First, I would look to historical experience, both recent and more distant. It is perhaps a moot point to say that so far our society has not collapsed, however I do think that stepping back from the present moment is useful. Many times in history people have been convinced of the impending destruction of society whether it be from the threat of atheism, communism, immigration, totalitarianism, or any number of other threats both past and present. What has typically been overlooked, in my opinion, is the capacity and ingenuity of the human mind and the societal will to stand at the precipice and find the strength to turn things around.

Second, I would question both the expertise and track records of most prognosticators in the public forum. Most often, for every correct prediction they have made there are ten others excused away by context, lack of information, or misunderstanding. To avoid being the pot that calls the kettle black, I would like to clearly state that I do not pretend to know any better than anyone else in this regard. However, in the face of uncertainty I would rather believe in the eventual competence of our institutions and citizens to get their acts together rather than wallow in the much easier belief that partisanship, small mindedness, greed and foolishness will triumph over bravery, community, reasonableness and intelligence.

Is this the end of the world as we know it? We cannot know until the world ends, and by then it will be too late. In that light, I choose to continue the day to day tasks of living: seeing friends, enjoying good food, going for walks and dreaming of a future that holds opportunity even in the face of crisis.

Brief Post Script: Those of you who loyally read my blog (thanks!) know that I have on a number of occasions criticized the policy positions of the late Jack Layton. While I am sure it is evident to those of you who know me well, I would like to extend my condolances to his family and friends and my gratitude for his patriotism and broadening of the Canadian political debate. May he rest in peace.